The West should use the upcoming Turkish election to reset relations regardless of who wins, according to a new report produced by two Glasgow Caledonian academics for the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI).
Professor Umut Korkut and researcher Dr Tarik Basbugoglu argue the dire state of the Turkish economy rather than who is in charge will determine future relations with the UK, EU and the US.
In Twists and Turns: The Pragmatism Behind Turkey’s Foreign-Policy Pivots, the authors outline how Turkey’s economic woes mean its close relationship with Russia will continue regardless of the election result.
Voters in Turkey go to the polls on May 14 with President Erdogan facing his biggest challenge yet from opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
To counter Russian influence and in the absence of progress on Turkey’s accession to the EU, western policymakers should make a bold offer to Turkey founded on a new trade framework, according to Professor Korkut.
He said: “The Turkish election is a test for whether democracy can alter the global rise of illiberalism and autocracy.
“Regardless of which political party wins the election, Western leaders should consider a new platform for engagement which acknowledges the country’s strategic position in the world.”
Matthew Godwin, Middle East Lead for TBI, said: “Turkey’s foreign policy is driven by pragmatism rather than its internal politics.
“This presents the West with a huge opportunity to bring Turkey back into the fold with a bold offer based on a new trade framework.
“Giving Turkey the economic boost it needs could be the key to unlocking a whole host of the West’s strategic aims, from lifting the veto on Sweden’s membership of NATO to building a closer security partnership.”
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